Article: Phase Three: Z-Factor TCGs

Maybe it's just me, but cultural movements seem to be divided into three phases. You have Phase 1, the Indiscernable Phase (official name, natch). Disparate pieces appear in the ether of culture but are not yet discernable as a "thing". Take cyberpunk, for example. In the mid-20th century, books appeared with techno-dystopias, datanet heists, body-embedded technology, evil corporations, information wars, etc. scattered among them. But it wasn't until the late 70s and early 80s that writers like William Gibson, Bruce Sterling, Pat Cadigan et al. pulled these ideas together into a phenomenon we call cyberpunk. Yes, you're reading correctly: cyberpunk as an identifiable concept does not emerge until Phase 2, the Coalescing Phase. One other important point about Phase 2 is that it sits on the edge of popularity but is not yet popular. Neuromancer was a niche hit upon release, not a mass market hit. The hucksters need time to catch on, which leads us to Phase 3: the Commodification Phase. The "thing" is now an ordinary thing, a known entity that companies can market, produce, and sell en masse. They can put the 'cyberpunk' label on the cover and most people will know what it is. Rinse, repeat, until ubiquity is achieved.

Of course, the transitions between the three phases are nebulous. What precisely is the line between Coalescing and Commodification? Hard to know. But the phases undoubtedly exist. Cyberpunk, jazz, romantasy, or any other cultural phenomenon have gone through them. Which brings us to TCGs.

The Pieces of the Pie

Magic the Gathering is without a doubt the most famous TCG. But like Neuromancer, it is Phase 2: the Coalescing Phase. Baseball cards, games involving baseball cards, Blood Bowl, standard card games, Cosmic Encounter, Dungeons & Dragons, and other elements appeared separately before Magic. Magic coalesced those elements into what we now think of as a TCG. Players construct decks of cards, sit down to duel an opponent, generate in-game resources to play cards, and attempt to combine card effects in the most efficient, powerful fashion to defeat their opponent. Then they purchase more cards to tweak their deck, and the world goes round. It's these pieces of the TCG pie and how they relate to our current phase, the Commodification Phase, that I would like to dig into today.

The New Kids on the Block

Let's start by taking a take a look at the TCG and TCG-esque games which have emerged the past 2-3 years, or are about to emerge: Star Wars Unlimited, Altered, Rush of Ikorr, Alpha Clash, Cyberpunk TCG, Lorcana, One Piece, Sorcery, Neuroscape, Universes Beyond, Riftbound, and many others. These games are key parts of a massive resurgence in the TCG market. If you're paying attention, you may have noticed something: most of these games exhibit strong signs of the Commodification Phase, perhaps none greater than Magic itself. They are largely, curse of all curses, ubiquitous.

If you've played any older TCGs, the Phase 2 games, then you've noticed the new Phase 3 games are missing a little something-something. What is it? It's the willingness to take creative risk. Rather than take a chance and offer players something that stands out from the crowd for better or worse, the new games often cater to lowest common denominators in the hopes of gaining commercial success. They want to mingle in the crowd, not stand out. Their similarities to other games are more numerous than their differences. Let's see how.

Money +1

Without fail, each of these TCGs—Star Wars Unlimited, Riftbound, One Piece, Altered, Alpha Clash, Lorcana, One Piece—has the same resource system. Once per round, players can convert a card into a resource, thus increasing their spending potential by a factor of one. It's stable. It's fair. It's safe. It's an on-rails experience. And, if you're asking me, it's hedging bets. Design a game that will make a splash on the market, so says Boss Huckster. But don't try anything too risky. Err on the side of accessibility. Don't include ideas that will decrease the chances of getting a return on investment. Make measurable choices, not artistic ones. Sell your s...

By no means am I advocating that we go back to Magic's shitty mana model. That is the other end of the spectrum. The sweet spot is obviously somewhere else. Rather than dinking and dunking for four or five rounds with a factor one bank, modern designers could make big plays possible right off the bat—as we saw in Phase 2. But they don't. They play safe, and therefore so must players.

A, B, C

Another commonality of Phase 3 TCGs is predictable gameplay. They all have fancy terms for exhausting a card, different sounding names for in-game phases, varying values that players are racing toward, etc. But this is minutae, small details. Differences at the macro level rarely exist. Experienced players know 80-90% of the games listed above without ever having played them. There might be a keyword or two, or a minor detail that needs crunching. But in a matter of one game, they're off and running. Which leads directly to: dryness of theme.

Eggshell White vs Cream

There are exceptions, but by and large the homegeneity of resource systems, turn structures, and hit-point meters has lead to a situation where most TCGs released today have interchangeable themes. Take Star Wars Unlimited and Riftbound, for example. Imagine switching the art. Would it really change anything thematically? Would the player feel any more or less invested in Star Wars or League of Legends playing the "new game"? Likely not. Now take a look at Warhammer: Conquest or Android Netrunner. Those games have atypical resource systems, atypical turn structures, and atypical win conditions. More imporantly, their themes align with gameplay. The games complement themselves. They make you feel like a hacker or corporate exec or space warlord taking over the galaxy. The have x-factors.

The Z-Factor

And that's it; x-factor games were once a thing. Many Phase 2 TCGs attempted something innovative, and flew high or crashed and burned for it. But it's 2026, and things have changed. We're clearly living among z-factor TCGs. Zombie factor. They go through the motions but don't have the same creative soul. There is little innovation, and therefore less about new games is engaging (save that you may be able to find a group to play locally). They are playing it safe, and rather than fly high or crash and burn, they just are just dying slowly. In two years 90% of the games listed above will only exist on the secondary market. Meanwhile, the Big Three will still sit their thrones, and the one game which is threatening to make a throne for itself (the one game which tried something innovative) Flesh & Blood, will likely continue its success. It's designers used the "brave" gear, and in combination with the whims of market capitalism, are thriving.

Tears of... Joy?

I realize I am shouting into the wind. Modern TCG designers are not listening to my puny voice. This post is just a lament, a grieving on the passing of TCGs as art to TCGs as a product. But all this too must fade. It's an inevitable cycle. Phase 4 is absorption into normalcy, aka relative obscurity. I take comfort that hidden in the cracks are still games that show a spark or two. Hubworld: Aidalon has promise. Chrono Core looks like it may offer a little bit extra. Draconis may or may not be the spiritual successor to Game of Thrones LCG. We'll see.

Until next time Phase 2. May you come while I am still kicking. Otherwise, back to all that good stuff of the early 2000s...